NFL Pick: Can Dallas Cowboys Close Game Against Reeling Tampa Bay?

Friday, December 16, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

NFL Pick: Can Dallas Cowboys Close Game Against Reeling Tampa Bay?

Analysis:
The month of December has not been kind to the Dallas Cowboys as history will attest. In games played in December and January, America's Team is a dismal 16-27 (.372) and that doesn't include a 1-4 playoff record in that time. While one is trying to get out of their deep freeze, its oponent has not fared any better of late as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven't celebrated a victory since leaves started to fall.

Despite their December affliction, the Cowboys still have playoffs on their minds when the NFC East co- leaders head to Raymond James Stadium trying to right its listing ship while the floundering Buccaneers will be attempting to avoid their longest in-season skid in 24 years when they take the field for Saturday's capper. The Buccs haven't won since October 16th when they shocked the Saints in the "Big Easy".

The Dallas Cowboys were less than six minutes from putting a stranglehold on the NFC East race and a playoff berth a week ago. But, as has been the case for much of the season, the Cowboys couldn't stand prosperity, then promptly blew a 12-point lead in the final 3 1/2 minutes and dropped a 37-34 decision to the New York Giants, their bitter division rival. So, instead of holding a two-game lead with three to play, Dallas finds itself in a tie with the Giants atop the NFC East as it prepares to visit the reeling Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Saturday night.

The Cowboys had gone ahead by a 34-22 count on quarterback Tony Romo's fourth touchdown pass of the night, a 50-yarder to young wideout Dez Bryant with 5:41 to go, but the defense allowed New York to reach the end zone twice in the closing stages to pull ahead before Dallas kicker Dan Bailey had a 47-yard field goal attempt partially blocked as time expired.

One week earlier, Bailey missed a 48-yard try on the final play of regulation that would have given the Cowboys a win over Arizona, moments after having a successful kick nullified when Dallas head coach Jason Garrett called an ill- fated timeout. The Cardinals went on to record a 19-13 triumph in overtime after overcoming a seven-point deficit entering the fourth quarter.

Dallas does still control its own destiny despite its current rut, which dropped the club to 5-9 in December games since 2008 and a lackluster 9-14 all- time in regular-season tilts held after November in which Romo's started, as the Cowboys will visit the Giants in the 2011 finale on Jan. 1.

The Cowboys had ripped off four consecutive wins, all against opponents presently below .500, prior to falling short against the Cardinals.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, hasn't come out on top since a 26-20 home decision over NFC South front-runner New Orleans all the way back on Oct. 16. The Buccaneers were 4-2 and right in the thick of the division race at the time, but have since been dealt seven straight losses to plummet out of contention.

The lowest point may have come last Sunday, when Tampa Bay was inundated with errors in a 41-14 throttling at the hands of a three-win Jacksonville squad averaging a measly 12.6 points per game at the time. The Jaguars had scored 37 points combined over their previous three outings.

The Bucs were awful in nearly every phase. The offense committed five turnovers and wide receiver Preston Parker added two more by fumbling away a pair of punt returns, one of which was recovered by Jacksonville for a touchdown. On defense, Tampa allowed the usually punchless Jags to put up a season-best 325 yards and cross the goal line on 4-of-5 red-zone opportunities.

Tampa Bay hasn't dropped eight in a row in the same season since closing out the 1987 campaign with eight consecutive losses, and the team's lengthy skid has triggered rampant speculation about the future of head coach Raheem Morris. The Buccaneers will play their final home date of 2011 with Saturday's tilt, prior to hitting the road for divisional bouts with Carolina and Atlanta.

 

Dallas has won nine of 12 lifetime regular-season meetings with Tampa Bay and posted its third straight win in the series with a 34-21 ousting of the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in the 2009 opener. The Cowboys also registered home victories over Tampa Bay twice in the past five years, a 38-10 rout in 2006 as well as a 13-9 verdict in 2008. The Bucs haven't bested Dallas since a 16-0 result in Tampa on Oct. 26, 2003, which capped a three-game win streak for the team in the set.

The Cowboys and Buccaneers also faced off in back-to-back years in postseason play, with Dallas following up a 38-0 shellacking of Tampa at Texas Stadium in a 1981 NFC Divisional Playoff with a 30-17 home win in a First-Round game during the 1982 season.

Both Garrett, who spent part of the 2004 season as a backup quarterback with the Buccaneers, and Morris will be opposing both one another and their counterpart's respective teams for the first time as head coaches.

Time & Venue:
- 8:20 PM ET, Saturday, December 17, 2011. Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Last Week's results:
- Dallas Cowboys (-3) loses to visiting NY Giants 37-34.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) loses to host Jacksonville Jaguars 41-14.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Dallas Cowboys (7-6) loses outright
- Favourite Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9) loses outright.

NFL Football Odds: Cowboys -7, O/U 46.5

Next up:
- Dallas home to Philadelphia Eagles, Saturday, December 24
- Tampa Bay at Carolina Panthers, Saturday, December 24

Dallas did more than lose a football game against the Giants. Rookie running back DeMarco Murray was lost for the season with a fractured ankle. Murray had ripped off three 100-yard games and helped sparked a four-game winning streak, but his injury puts oft-injured Felix Jones back in the starting lineup. Jones ran for 106 yards on 16 carries against the Giants. QB Tony Romo threw a season-high four TD passes and guided Dallas into position for a game-tying field goal that was blocked. He has thrown for 15 scores and two interceptions in the last six games.

Since beating New Orleans on Oct. 16 to move to 4-2 on the season, Tampa Bay has unraveled, losing seven consecutive games. The Buccaneers were pounded at Jacksonville 41-14 last week, and they have absorbed a pair of brutal defeats at home during the skid, falling to Houston (37-9) and NFC South rival Carolina (38-19). Sore-armed QB Josh Freeman has thrown a league-high 18 interceptions after being picked off only six times last season. The defense has been equally inept by allowing an NFC-worst 370 points, including at least 35 points in four of the past five games.

The Buccaneers haven't had much of a rushing game over the course of this season, but they'll need to come up with ways to create pressure to have any chance of winning this game. The Cowboys are 5-1 when Romo's been sacked one time or less in 2011, but they're 1-4 when the accomplished quarterback is taken down three or more times in a game. Romo has been sacked eight times during Dallas' two-game losing streak, with the Cardinals amassing five two weeks back.

With Freeman battling a sore right shoulder and plagued by turnover problems in recent weeks, expect the Bucs to run the offense through their powerful running back LaGarrette Blount and the Cowboys to be geared up to stop him. Tampa Bay is 0-6 this season when rushing for 90 yards or less, so it's apparent that getting Blount heavily involved increases its chances of success.

The Cowboys have either had a lead or been tied entering the final period in five of their six losses following their late stumbles against the Giants and Cardinals. If the Bucs can keep it close, they've got a quarterback with a reputation of coming through in the clutch in Freeman, the proud owner of eight fourth-quarter comebacks during his three-year NFL career.

Dallas, which has won the last three against the Bucs, signed veteran RB Sammy Morris this week.

Tampa Bay has not lost eight straight games since 1987.

"It's great for you guys to scare my family half to death and talk about that stuff all throughout. ... For me, a chance to ruin (Cowboys coach) Jason Garrett's season, and let you talk about him." – Bucs coach Raheem Morris on rumors he could be fired.

Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay
Dallas is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 12 games on the road

This appears to be a game that the Cowboys can dominate at first glance, as Romo and the Dallas receivers shouldn't encounter a whole lot of difficulty finding and attacking weak spots in a lackluster Tampa Bay defense that doesn't possess much of a pass rush and the Buccaneers have been turning the ball over in bunches as of late.

However, the Cowboys have not performed well on the road this season, with both of their two victories as the visitor coming in overtime, and Tampa Bay should have some motivation here with a rare opportunity to play on national television and the bad taste that remains from a losing streak that's gone on for nearly two months. Look for an inspired Bucs team to play much better than last week and hang tough throughout, but ultimately make one too many costly mistake that will be the difference between winning and losing.

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NFL Football Pick: Take points and Buccaneers.

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carolina panthers - dallas cowboys - dan bailey - demarco murray - dez bryant - felix jones - jacksonville jagauars - jason garrett - josh freeman - lagarrette blount

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