NFL Football Picks: New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
Thursday, September 08, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Time & Venue: 8:30 PM ET, Thursday, September 8, 2011. Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Weather: Clear, 67° F
Last Year’s result: New Orleans Saints (11-5) lost to Seattle Seahawks 41-36 in NFC Wild Card. Green Bay Packers (10-6) beat Pittsburgh Steelers 31-25 in Super Bowl XLV.
Analysis:
An intense and hot-blooded matchup between the past two Super Bowl winners kicks off the season when the New Orleans Saints visit the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night. Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to three playoff road wins en route to a Super Bowl victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers last season. The Saints' hopes of repeating were dashed with a stunning and unlikely playoff loss at Seattle.
Rodgers capped a spectacular season by throwing for nine touchdowns and rushing for two more in four postseason games. He gets two big weapons back in RB Ryan Grant and TE Jermichael Finley, who missed much of last season due to injuries. Linebacker Clay Matthews (13.5 sacks) leads a defense that ranked second in the league with 15.0 points allowed per game. Green Bay led the NFC in sacks (47) and interceptions (24) last season.
With a running game that was decimated by injuries, QB Drew Brees tossed 33 scoring passes but had a career-high 22 interceptions last season.The Saints were 28th in the league on the ground, but if Mark Ingram, a former Heisman winner at Alabama, can get on track, New Orleans will be able to throw teams off. He’ll start the year sharing time with Pierre Thomas, but many are banking on Ingram to be the featured running back at some point. The Saints also added San Diego's speedster Darren Sproles to take the place of Reggie Bush to its utility arsenal. They also added a lot of mass on the other side of the ball in defensive tackles Shaun Rogers and Aubrayo Franklin.
The similarities between Saints coach Sean Payton and Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy are striking. Both men are the same age (47) and are starting their sixth season with their respective clubs, with Payton (49-31) owning one more win than McCarthy (48-32). They were hired six days apart in January 2006 and each man is the 14th coach in the history of their franchises. Oh, and both have a Super Bowl ring as head coach.
Saints defensive end Will Smith was suspended for the first two games of the season for using a banned diuretic in a weight-loss supplement. The suspension was originally levied by the NFL in 2008, but dragged through the courts for over two years.
The teams haven't played since November 2008, when the Saints steamrolled Green Bay 51-29 behind 323 yards and four TD passes from Brees.
Green Bay is a 4.5-point NFL betting favorite at home, where they are 3-1 SU and ATS all-time against the Saints, and all four games have gone over the posted 47.5 total. Given the power of these two offenses, that wouldn’t be a stretch on Thursday night. Last season, Green Bay was 5-3 ATS at home and 7-6 as an ATS favorite, while New Orleans was 3-5 ATS on the road and 1-1 ATS as an underdog.
Rodgers and Brees will light up the scoreboard, but the home-field advantage and a stauncher defense will allow Green Bay to barely fend off New Orleans. This game will be decided by a late field goal. Take points and Saints.
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aaron rodgers - aubrayo franklin - clay matthews - darren sproles - drew brees - green bay packers - jermichael finley - lambeau field - mark ingram - mike mccarthy
