NFL Football Picks: Dallas Cowboys Hosts Red-Hot Miami Dolphins

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

NFL Football Picks: Dallas Cowboys Hosts Red-Hot Miami Dolphins

Analysis:
A strong recent surge has the Dallas Cowboys in a favorable position in regards to making the postseason. Though the Miami Dolphins still remain well behind in the race, they've certainly been playing like a playoff team as of late.

Both clubs will put three-game winning streaks on the line when they square off Thursday at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas' traditional Thanksgiving Day home event, and there are a few other interesting subplots pertaining to this Week 12 matchup as well.

Dallas has caught the New York Giants in the chase for first place in the NFC East by taking advantage of a softer portion of its season schedule, stringing together home victories over non-contending Seattle and fading Buffalo before outlasting the struggling Washington Redskins in overtime on the road this past Sunday. The surge has the Cowboys tied with the Giants for the division's top spot, with the rivals set to meet twice over the season's final four weeks.

Prior to hosting New York in a potential blockbuster showdown on Dec. 11, Dallas will take on the Dolphins and visit Arizona, two teams that possess non- threatening 3-7 overall records at the moment.

Miami's mark is a bit deceiving, however. After an 0-7 start that contained several painfully-close losses, the Dolphins have ripped off three consecutive impressive wins and outscored the opposition by an average of 22 points over that outstanding stretch. They've also yielded a mere 20 points during the tear, with all three of their foes held to single digits.

After limiting Washington to 246 total yards in a 20-9 home triumph in Week 10, Miami's improved defense allowed just 247 in Sunday's 35-8 dismantling of Buffalo at Sun Life Stadium.

The unit's task could be considerably tougher this week, however, as the Cowboys come in ranked sixth in the NFL in total offense and have gotten terrific play out of quarterback Tony Romo lately. The veteran gunslinger has thrown for eight touchdowns and no interceptions during Dallas' current unbeaten run, while completing a sharp 69.1 percent of his attempts over that span.

Matt Moore has been on a nice roll of his own over the past three weeks, with the injury fill-in having hit on an excellent 70.8 percent of his throws with six touchdowns and just one interception during that period.

Moore, who took over as Miami's starter following a season-ending separated shoulder to Chad Henne back in Week 4, is one of five ex-Cowboys set to take part in Thursday's tilt, having spent the 2007 preseason with Dallas as an undrafted rookie. The Dolphins have brought in 18 players with former ties to the Cowboys since Tony Sparano, who was Dallas' assistant head coach from 2003-07 prior to being hired by Miami, and general manager Jeff Ireland -- also a previous member of that team's front office -- took over prior to the 2008 campaign.

That list also includes three other Miami starters in tight end Anthony Fasano, inside linebacker Kevin Burnett and offensive tackle Marc Colombo.

The Dolphins are on their longest stretch of wins since prevailing five consecutive times to close out the 2008 regular season in Sparano's head coaching debut. The Cowboys, meanwhile, will be shooting for their first four- game unblemished sequence in regular-season play since Oct. 11-Nov. 8, 2009.

Dallas had won four straight Thanksgiving Day bouts before being dealt a tough 30-27 loss to New Orleans last season, and each of those four victories were by a margin of 17 or more points.

Time & Venue:
- 4:15 PM ET, Thursday, November 24, 2011. Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Last Week's results:
- Miami Dolphins (-1) beats visiting Buffalo Bills 35-8.
- Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) beats host Washington Redskins 27-24.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Miami Dolphins (3-7) wins and covers
- Favourite Dallas Cowboys (6-4) wins but does not cover

NFL Football Odds: Cowboys -7, O/U 45

Next up:
- Miami home to Oakland, Sunday, December 4
- Dallas at Arizona, Sunday, December 4

Miami has outscored opponents 86-20 during the team’s first three-game winning streak since 2008. The Dolphins were one of the front-runners in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes before Moore and the defense caught fire. Moore (160 yards, 3 TDs in a 35-8 win over Buffalo) has thrown six touchdowns and just one interception in that span. Meanwhile, the defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown this month. Miami has allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the NFL (3) and ranks sixth in the league in scoring defense (18.6 ppg). RB Reggie Bush has also come on strong, rushing for 274 yards and four touchdowns in the last four games.


Dallas eked out its third straight win, 27-24 over Washington as rookie Dan Bailey booted a 39-yard field goal in overtime. Romo was at his best, eluding the rush while throwing for 292 yards and three touchdowns. He has thrown for 841 yards with eight touchdowns and, more importantly, zero interceptions in the last three games. Romo is 18-2 in November and 12-0 at home during the month. Dallas needed him more on a day when rookie RB DeMarco Murray was held in check (23 carries, 75 yards) after rushing for 601 yards and four scores in the previous four games. WR Laurent Robinson has been outstanding while filling in for Miles Austin (hamstring), scoring five touchdowns in the last four games.

Both these teams' win streaks have been fueled by excelling in the turnover department, with Dallas owning a stellar 9-to-1 takeaway-to-giveaway ratio over the past three weeks and the Miami defense having forced four of its overall low sum of eight turnovers in its past two victories. Whichever of these participants can maintain its recent level of performance stands a good chance of coming out a winner.

The Dolphins simply don't have the weapons to outscore the Cowboys in a track meet, so their fate rests largely on the strength of a revitalized defense that hasn't allowed a touchdown in 12 straight quarters. Miami has also been remarkably stingy inside the red zone, an area where the Cowboys have had problems scoring all throughout this season.

The Cowboys are 4-0 when Murray has had 20 or more carries in a game, and the team has averaged an outstanding 177.3 rushing yards in those contests. If Dallas has its ground game humming in addition to another crisp effort from Romo, the Dolphins will be hard-pressed to win here.

Romo has been outstanding on Thanksgiving, completing 69 percent of his attempts (83 of 120) for 1,141 yards with 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions in four starts. He sat out last season's 30-27 defeat to New Orleans – a loss ended the Cowboys' four-game winning streak on Thanksgiving – with a broken collarbone.

Dallas tried to sneak Moore onto its practice squad during the 2007 preseason, but he was claimed by Carolina. He was 15 of 28 for 182 yards with a touchdown and an interception in a 20-13 loss to the Cowboys that season.

Bailey has made 24 straight field goals, three shy of the team record set by Chris Boniol in 1996.

Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Dallas is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games

Two teams that looked like a couple of turkeys a few weeks back should provide a relatively-entertaining contest to fill the time between the two marquee matchups that will take place on Thursday. Though the Cowboys have been strong at home this season and historically good on Thanksgiving, this one may not be so easy due to Miami's dominance on defense as of late and Moore's emergence into a serviceable quarterback.

However, shutting down a balanced Dallas offense with a host of high-caliber playmakers will be far more difficult than doing so against the anemic units of Kansas City, Washington and Buffalo -- the Dolphins' three victims during their winning run. Miami should be able to keep the Cowboys from scoring at will, but may not have the firepower to put up the necessary points to extend its streak.

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NFL Football Pick: Take points and Dolphins.

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anthony fasano - buffalo bills - chad henne - cowboys stadium - dallas cowboys - dan bailey - demarco murray - kevin burnett - laurent robinson - mark colombo

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