Las Vegas NFL Picks: Atlanta Falcons Gets Visit From Minnesota Vikings

Saturday, November 26, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Matt Ryan - Las Vegas NFL Picks: Atlanta Falcons Gets Visit From Minnesota Vikings

Analysis:
The Atlanta Falcons will attempt to take advantage of what appears to be a golden opportunity when the playoff contenders conclude a two- game home stretch with Sunday's matchup against the reeling Minnesota Vikings from the Georgia Dome.

The Falcons received a welcomed Thanksgiving gift courtesy of the Green Bay Packers, whose 27-15 victory over Detroit on Thursday enhanced Atlanta's chances of returning to the NFC Playoffs as a Wild Card entry. A win over the badly-struggling Vikings would give the Falcons an identical 7-4 record as the Lions, whom Atlanta defeated earlier this season.

Atlanta still has designs on capturing a second straight NFC South title, however, and enters the weekend trailing rival New Orleans by one game in the standings. The Saints, who will host the New York Giants on Monday, will face the Falcons at the Superdome in Week 16 in a contest that could decide the division.

In the meantime, Atlanta hopes to take care of business against a Minnesota squad that's won just twice in 2011, has lost 13 of its last 16 road games, and may be without star running back Adrian Peterson on Sunday.

Peterson exited last week's 27-21 loss to AFC West leader Oakland in the first quarter with a high left ankle sprain and although subsequent tests revealed only a Grade 1 injury, Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier indicated that the four-time All-Pro would likely be held out for at least one week.

Minnesota's offense had its problems following Peterson's departure, with rookie quarterback Christian Ponder throwing three interceptions and the team turning the ball over five times in all on the afternoon.

2010 second-round draft pick Toby Gerhart would get the lion's share of carries in the event Peterson doesn't play, and versatile wideout Percy Harvin may be utilized some as a running back as well.

They'll be facing a stern Atlanta defense that's yielded the second-fewest rushing yards in the NFL and held Tennessee's Chris Johnson to a meager 13 yards on 12 attempts in last week's 23-17 triumph over the Titans at the Georgia Dome.

Quarterback Matt Ryan contributed 316 passing yards to the win, the Falcons' fourth in five outings since a sluggish 2-3 start to the season, with running back Michael Turner adding 100 rushing yards and a touchdown.

The Vikings have a 15-9 lead in their all-time regular-season series with the Falcons, but Atlanta has won two of the past three meetings between the clubs. The Falcons posted a 24-17 road decision over Minnesota in the most recent clash, which took place in 2008, and delivered a 30-10 victory in the Vikings' last visit to the Georgia Dome back in 2005. Minnesota last topped the Falcons via a 24-3 verdict at the Metrodome in 2007 and hasn't prevailed in Atlanta since a 39-26 win in 2003.

These teams have also faced off twice in postseason play. Minnesota dealt Atlanta a 30-24 setback in Minneapolis in a 1982 NFC First-Round Playoff, while the Falcons upset a one-loss Vikings outfit in a 30-27 overtime thriller in the 1998 NFC Championship to advance to their only Super Bowl in franchise history.

Mike Smith owns a 1-0 record against Minnesota during his time as Atlanta's head coach, while Frazier will be opposing both the Falcons and Smith for the first time as a head man.

Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 27, 2011. Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia

Last Week's results:
- Minnesota Vikings (+1) loses to visiting Oakland Raiders 27-21.
- Atlanta Falcons (-6) beats visiting Tennessee Titans 23-17.

Last week's ATS:
- Underdog Minnesota Vikings (2-8) loses and does not cover
- Favourite Atlanta Falcons (6-4) pushed.

NFL Football Odds: Falcons -9.5, O/U 44

Next up:
- Minnesota home to Denver, Sunday, December 4
- Atlanta at Houston, Sunday, December 4

The Vikings have lost two straight since going into their bye on a winning note. They made a furious rally in the fourth quarter of last week's 27-21 home loss to the Raiders but fell short. Rookie QB Christian Ponder threw three interceptions – two near the Oakland goal line. If Peterson can't go, it will put a lot of pressure on Ponder, because the Falcons boast the league’s No. 2 rushing defense (85.4 yards per game).

Atlanta stayed within a game of NFC South leader New Orleans with last week's 23-17 win over Tennessee, though the Falcons made things interesting by allowing rookie QB Jake Locker and WR Nate Washington to hook up for two second-half touchdown passes.

Like Minnesota, Atlanta also could be without one of its top offensive weapons in rookie WR Julio Jones, who is dealing with the lingering effects of a hamstring injury. Jones was expected to return to practice Thursday to test out the hamstring. He has emerged as one of QB Matt Ryan's favorite targets along with WR Roddy White and TE Tony Gonzalez.

Basically, the Falcons should win this game as long as they take care of the football. Atlanta is 5-0 this season when finishing with a positive or even turnover ratio, but 1-4 when it has more giveaways than its opponent. The team has had just one turnover in each of its last three contests, and continuing that trend would likely lead to further success this week.

The Vikings are going to find it hard to reach their usual level of production running the football without Peterson and in a matchup against the league's second-ranked rush defense. That means Ponder is going to have to come of age and make plays with his arm while keeping the rookie mistakes to a minimum. Another three-interception output like last week will almost surely spell doom.

Atlanta would have had an easy win last Sunday if not for a host of missed scoring opportunities. The Falcons marched inside the Tennessee 20-yard line six times but scored only two touchdowns, settling for three Matt Bryant field goals while also losing a fumble on one drive. Minnesota's capable of hanging around if Atlanta's equally as inefficient in this game.

Ryan is 23-4 at home in his career with 41 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions. The Falcons are 19-0 when he has a rating over 100.

Ponder has passed for 190 or more yards in all four of his starts, and he had a career-high 71 rushing yards last week.

Falcons RB Michael Turner had 100 rushing yards last week for his fifth 100-yard game of the season. When Turner has 23 or more attempts, his teams are 21-1.

Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Atlanta is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Atlanta is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Considering that the Vikings' two wins this year have come against a pair of the league's bottom-feeders in Arizona and Carolina and factoring in the team's sustained lack of success on the road, Minnesota was already in a tough spot with a struggling rookie quarterback going up against a quality opponent in its own building.

With Peterson likely out and a depleted back end of the defense, the outlook looks even more bleak. The Falcons hold sizeable advantages in just about all phases here, and only their tendency to go through lulls over a course of a game prevents this one from turning into a massive blowout.

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NFL Football Pick: Take Falcons.

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adrian peterson - atlanta falcons - chris johnson - christian ponder - georgia dome - green bay packers - jake locker - julio jones - leslie frazier - matt bryant

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